While diplomats in Washington toast to a new era of friendship, Vietnam US war planning is quietly telling a much darker story behind closed doors in Hanoi.
A recently leaked internal document from Vietnam’s Ministry of National Defense has shattered the illusion of total trust between the former foes. Despite signing a historic Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States in 2023, Vietnam’s military leadership is actively war-gaming a scenario where American forces attempt to overthrow the Communist Party. This revelation of Vietnam US war planning highlights a jarring disconnect: while the diplomats are shaking hands, the generals are loading their guns.
The “Peaceful Evolution” Threat
The leaked dossier, completed just months before President Biden’s historic visit to Hanoi, centers on a contingency explicitly referred to as the “2nd US Invasion Plan.”
To the casual observer, the idea of a U.S. invasion in the 21st century seems absurd. However, the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) operates on a different wavelength of survival. Their doctrine is heavily focused on combating peaceful evolution and self-transformation, that being a political concept used by the Party to describe Western efforts to infiltrate, corrupt, and eventually dismantle socialist regimes from the inside using democracy as a weapon.
For the VCP hardliners, the new influx of American capital and cultural influence is a Trojan horse. The Vietnam US war planning documents suggest that military strategists view “soft power” exchanges as merely the first phase of a hostile takeover. They fear that if political subversion fails, the United States will fabricate a pretext to launch a military intervention similar to those seen in the Middle East.
A Defensive Posture
To counter this perceived threat, the leaked report details the integration of the all-people national defense posture, a strategy that mobilizes the entire population to resist a technologically superior invader.
Vietnam US war planning acknowledges that the Vietnam People’s Army (VPA) cannot match the firepower of the U.S. Navy or Air Force in a head-to-head clash. Instead, the strategy relies on asymmetric warfare, cyber defense, and the fortification of political loyalty within the army ranks. The goal is to make any potential occupation so costly and chaotic that the aggressor is forced to withdraw, mirroring the tactics used during the “American War” of the 20th century.
It is a sobering reminder that while the 2nd US Invasion Plan might sound like paranoia to Western ears, it is treated as a baseline reality in the war rooms of Hanoi.
The Diplomatic High-Wire Act
This revelation complicates Vietnam’s famous foreign policy strategy, known as bamboo diplomacy amid great power competition.
The philosophy of “bamboo diplomacy” is to have strong roots (national interest) while utilizing flexible branches (foreign relations) to sway with the wind without breaking. Vietnam has successfully wooed the U.S. to balance against China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Yet, the existence of active Vietnam US war planning proves that the “roots” of the bamboo remain deeply suspicious of American intentions. Hanoi wants American aircraft carriers to visit Danang to scare off Beijing, but it doesn’t want the sailors on those ships spreading ideas about multi-party democracy.
A Trust Deficit
Ultimately, the leak exposes a significant strategic trust deficit in hanoi.
American policymakers have spent decades trying to convince Vietnam that the war is over and that Washington respects the VCP’s political system. The modernization of the vietnam people’s army, which has included purchasing Western equipment, was seen as a sign of this growing trust. However, the continued existence of Vietnam US war planning scenarios targeting the U.S. suggests that the VCP believes Washington’s ultimate goal remains regime change, regardless of what is said at press conferences.As the U.S. pushes for deeper ties in 2026, it must navigate this duality. The partnership is real, but so is the fear. Until the ghosts of the past are truly exorcised, Vietnam US war planning will likely continue to treat the United States as both a necessary friend and a potential enemy.
